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Post flood economy of Pakistan

According to World Bank, the direct damage of recent flood to property and crops in Pakistan will exceed $10 billion (which is more than the quarter of the country's national budget). While many of the areas of southern Sindh are still underwater many of the flood affecters are returning home in hope to rebuild their future again.

Economists are forecasting that at least $24-25 billion will be needed in order to rehabilitate the areas in stable form, but the rehabilitation process is going at a very slow pace. One alarming situation for the government is also being observed, that people are now least interested in what government is saying or doing and neither they are in hope that it will do any good for the masses.

On the other hand the economic situation of the country is getting worse day by day due to poor visions and governance issues of current democratic government. Recently SAFMA arranged a seminar on this issue and invited renowned economists of Pakistan namely, Dr. Ijaz Nabi, Dr. Akmal Hussain and Sartaj Aziz to share their views on the subject. We managed to record their version for my program "Maeshatnama".

Video shared below is discussing the pace of rehabilitation process and the concerns of the government from the journalistic point of view. Mian Shahid, commerce reporter of Waqt News is sharing his ideas on the topic with our host Syed Azhar Bukhari.



Dr. Ijaz Nabi, renowned economist and Dean and Professor of department of Humanities and Social sciences, sharing his views on the subject, that what necessary steps should be taken to smoothen the economic cycles while the country is facing both the economic crisis and rehabilitation process, in video shared below:



Sartaj Aziz, former finance, agriculture, foreign affairs minister of Pakistan and vice chancellor of Beacon House University, shares his views on the subject in video shared below.

Monetary Policy of Pakistan 2010-2011

In the last week of September 2010, State Bank of Pakistan decided to increase its monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 13.5% for the period of October-Novemer 2010. Due to various crisis faced by the country the SBP officials are saying that it is necessary to tighten the monetary stance for the next couple of months. According to the current Governor SBP Dr. Shahid Kardar, “The monetary policy stance is formed by the consideration that the effect of continued inflation is substantial and felt by the entire economy. A tightening of the stance is thus called for in full recognition that the difficulty to contain fiscal deficit has resulted in the private sector bearing the full brunt of such an adjustment,”.

According to the SBP momentary policy document, the recent catastrophic floods have serious implications for macroeconomic stability and growth prospects. However, even before the floods, the macroeconomic conditions and outlook were looking fragile. By the end of FY10, inflation was high and the fiscal deficit had risen to 6.3 percent of GDP. Early assessments indicated that these pressures are unlikely to abate in FY11.

Few days before, I had recorded one of the episode of my program "Maeshatnama" on this topic and invited renowned economists Dr. Shahid A. Zia and Mr. Tariq Asmat to share their views on the topic, that what will be the after effects of such stances of the governments on Pakistani economic cycle.

Video discussing the earlier stances of Governer SBP and current policies, plus did the government had any other option to avail in current economic scenario:



It said that the next quarter would be crucial in forming an assessment of the effectiveness of government’s efforts to contain the fiscal deficit and its inflationary borrowings from the SBP and the banking system. There are assumptions that the process of tightening in monetary policy will further continue. Following video is discussing the after affect of such stance on the economy and inflation.



According to the economic gurus, in Pakistan only salaried class pays its taxes regularly, though due to the fact the salary is given after the deduction of the taxes to the employees, what are the benefits of increasing the tax net in country and what necessary steps should be taken in order to fulfill the targets of FBR, is discussed in the following video.

Threats to Self Reliance of Pakistan

Recently there were news about that Pakistani Banks had quitely written off Rs. 50 billion fresh loans outstanding against the borrowers during the last two years and at the same time, Pakistan's total borrowing from World Bank, Asian Development and IMF reaches $31 Billion.

Now seeing such figures one can easily think that on one side we are showing our so-called economic recession and asking for help in terms of loans or donations etc and on the other hand our banks are writing off fresh loans which a very high percentage. According to the figures given by Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed from 1947 to 2007 banks have been writing off loans with the average of 6.8 billion per year but during this "freshly" democratic government this average has reached to 25 billion rupees. Ofcourse, if we have to monitor the companies whom loans have been written off, we still their luxurious lifestyles but on paper who are unable to pay their debts.

Today I am sharing you the program "Maeshatnama" on this topic and it is being discussed by renonwned economist Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed while the program was moderated by Syed Azhar Bukhari and produced by me, Syed Nabeel Tirmazi.

Video discussing how can economy survive while on one hand we are generously writting off local loans and on the hand asking for grants, loans and donations from foriegn banks??



Video discussing role of Supereme Court of Pakistan in this issue:



Video discussing the role of State bank and does it need accountability:

Interview of Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed in program "Meri Kitab Dunya"

Prof. Dr. Khawaja Amjad Saeed is a versatile scholar having more than 50 years of experience as economist. Written numerous publications and received various awards globally, is currently the principal of Hailey College of Banking and Finance and also serving as Professor Emeritus of Apex Group of Management Instituitions, Pune, India. As I am writing about this legend I am unable to write much about him , as he has been inspiration to many of us related to business, economics and Pakistan ofcourse and even in his 70's he is actively performing his mission and giving lectures worldwide. Recently we had the opportunity to interview him in one of my program "Meri Kitab Dunya" aired on Apna News, about book reading, he shared his precious experience with us. Below are the links of the program, I hope you will like the program and please do comment on the post. The program is being hosted by Rozina Nadeem while the production is directed and produced by me, Nabeel Tirmazi.

Dr. Khawaja Amjad Saeed discussing his thoughts about Book Reading and how it is important to have such trait in grooming one's whole life. Part 1



Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed discussing his childhood memories related to the habit of bookreading and his mission in the field of business education.



The Book reading segment by Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed from his book "Economy of Pakistan"

Stock Market in Pakistan

Stock Market is said to be a barometer for any economy. Kenneth Chang said once, A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim, so in other words we can say that behavior of the market shows the different trends in economy. In recent years, there hasn't been a significant development in Pakistani stock market and so is in the case of economy. Today we are sharing videos on the significance of stock market in an economy and what are the potential opportunities and threats related to it. The topic was discussed in program Maeshatnama on Apna News by renowned economist and ex-executive of LSE Dr. Shahid A. Zia while the program was moderated by Syed Azhar Bukhari and produced by Syed Nabeel Tirmazi.

Relationship of Economy and Stock Market



Importance of Educating about Stock Market to Entrepreneurs



Giving Financial Educational to the investors in Stock Market

H₂O----High-time 2 Observe

By Rabia Tirmazi

Recently Finance Ministry of Pakistan has issued economic survey of 2009-10 that put blames of majority problems on water crisis in Pakistan. Almost every sector depends on water resources either its power generation, or agriculture. Economists had for seen that water crisis will get worsen in next 25 to 30 years. But government have turned blind eye by not giving importance to this large-scale issue. Although the GDP has increased to 4.1% in year 2009-10 compared to last year’s GDP of 1.2% but main sectors like livestock, agriculture has recorded drastic decline over the years due to serious water crisis. Pakistan is a rich country in natural resources and agriculture was considered to be the backbone of our economy. During 1980’s the contribution of agriculture sector was around 60% of GDP growth rate but this figure has declined to just 29%.  This sector is continuing a secular trend of decline over the past several years mainly due to the persistent negligence of government towards this sector.

Total population of Pakistan has increased to 173.51 million and according to a study the country has slipped below 100m³ of water per capita from year 2010. Water unavailability is however another major obstacle to the development of the country in terms of the food security, economic development and industrialization. The water shortage in agriculture sector alone has been estimated 29% for 2010 and 33% for 2025.

Despite all these issues, the current scenario have almost twisted now we have abundant of water in form of floods and heavy rainfalls but we lack water reservoirs and dams. Present dams and reservoirs are full to their capacity and are not enough to control floods. There was no pre-planning for water management our government was just stressing on problems not on solutions or infrastructure development. At the time of water crisis the major solution was to build water dams that could not only solve the problem of water shortage but could help in electricity generation as well. But this problem prolonged due to inter-provinces conflicts. Pakistani economy had to bear huge losses in form of providing the public with alternatives to solution, not the solution.

We have not just forgot the Swat operation in which millions of funds were being allocated for rehabilitation, shelter, maintenance and food purposes and all this happened due to poor security issue in Pakistan. Now once again we are on the same turn that huge funds will be allocated to rehabilitation of flood victims, infrastructure development, and concerning health issues. I am unable to understand where are the government five year plans for economic development? when millions and billions from budget have to be used for rehabilitation or support purposes. Water is neither the main issue nor the flood because it’s a natural disaster; actually it is high-time to observe where we are standing. This is our elected government which is not even eligible to be on their seats anymore. Since the time this government has been elected it has not solved a single issue either its security or energy crisis. Now more than 100,000 households need aid who have lost everything in floods.  All this happened due to poor disaster management and poor infrastructure development. This is high time to think over that it’s again a huge loss to our economy in the form of loss of valuable lives, severe damage to crops, agriculture, livestock sector, and destroyed infrastructure of roads and communication.

Our economy is desperately drowning due to the government’s poor management, ineffective policies and under-investment in critical sectors. These matters can not be deferred for much longer and will require enormous resources.  

Significance of Pakistan in SAARC

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was established in 1985 with the intention to overcome the common problems through mutual cooperation involving south asian countries i.e, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. In April 2007, Afghanistan became its 8th member on the ocassion of association's 14th summit. According to the statistics one-fifth of the world population comprises of the population of SAARC countries. Below are the videos discussing the opportunities for Pakistan, regarding current economic crisis. The expert is renonwed economist Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saaed, moderated by Syed Azhar Bukhari and produced by Syed Nabeel Tirmazi.

Women Enterpreneurship in Pakistan

According to Staticians, 59.8% of Pakistan's population consists of 15-64 years of men and women, while having a median age of 21.2, out of which 50,807,705 are women. In other words it can be said that 28.6 % of our population is based on such women who can actively participate in country's economy either directly or indirectly. But unfortunately, Pakistani people, in the state of dilemma that whether women should actively participate in our economy or not due to many so-called taboos, as a result this segment of population remained largely inactive.

Due to recent economic recession, it is now felt hard that women should be trained in technical and financial skills through proper channels, in order to enhance their productivity regarding their conventional skills. This is the topic discussed in below videos which I produced for Apna News in program Maeshat Nama, the participants are, Dr. Shela Javed Akram,President of Central and North Women Chamber of Commerce & Industry and Miss Maimoona Sattar, Project Manager of Women Business Center, while the show is modrated by Syed Azhar Bukhari.

Literacy Rate and participation of Women in Pakistani Economy



Business and Financial Skill in Pakistani Women



Women entrepreneurship and International Marketing

Pak-Iran relations & Pakistani Economy

I was quite surprised to see the history of Pak-Iran gas pipeline to the fact that it was thought in 1950s by an Pakistani engineer Malik Aftab Ahmed Khan, the person died in 1999 but his idea presented progressed quite slowly facing many disturbances involving both internal and external affairs of the countries involved.

There was a strong opinion by economists that Pakistan-Iran relationships should flourish with its full potential so that it can benefit both the countries and now, when Pakistan is facing many economic crisis it is necessary to join hands with neighbors in good terms.

Initially the gas pipeline project was to be done with participation of Iran, Pakistan and India but after much discussion over 14 years, finally Pakistan and Iran signed the agreement without India. According to the agreement, Iran will provide 750 million cubic feet per day in next 25 years. What will be the impact of this project in Pakistan's economy and what will be the future of Pakistan and Iran relationship despite of the bans imposed by superpowers on Iran and Pakistan being acting submissively to them, the topic was discussed recently in my program Maeshatnama, involving renowned Economist Dr. Qais Aslam and Engr. Iftikhar-ul-Haq and hosted by Syed Azhar Bukhari.

Part-1



Part2



Part3

Budget 2010-2011 A Journalistic Appraoch

The much awaited pessimisms related to Budget 2010-2011 has revealed. As always govt. are happy with the budget presented, opposition busy in criticism and masses are disappointed, but the most important thing that industrial sector isn’t even happy with the budget. The central information Secretary Fauzia Wahab has said (as always justifying PPP) that recently presented budget is the "best budget" ever presented in Pakistan. By increasing 1% in General Sales Tax to 17% is the right decision and minor inflation will be experiences by the masses (1% seems 1 but in economics obviously the after effects are quite bigger than just merely number 1).

According to the shows conducted on the Pakistani television channels none of the entities (masses, classes, industrial sector etc.) is happy the way things are announced, the people are saying that neither it is public friendly budget nor indstry friendly the is only IMF-friendly.

Below is the video of my program maeshat-nama moderated by Syed Azhar Bukhari discussing Flaws and Opportunities in this budget 2010-2011 with Sudhir Ch. (Daily Times) and Rizwan Ali (Apna News).



There is also a pessmistic appraoch towards development programs in Pakistan. Experts are commentng that figures presented in PSDP is as always an illusion and wont do any pracitical results.



After the 18th Amendment much of the responsibility is on the shoulders of Provinces and now it is to observe that what they have to tell us. Also video below has renowned economist Dr. Shahid Hassan Sidiqui commenting the after effects of Budget 2010 and predicting that there may be a Mini-Budget observed in Pakistan in October of this year.



The only things that was regarded and appreciated heavily was the 50% increment in Govt. employees (though theses are very few in numbers as compared to population of Pakistan), but majority of basic needs of population has been severly avoided, discussed below by renowned Economists and ex. Finance Minister Dr. Salman Shah.



Now on conclusion of this program, I managed to talk with Omer Ayub Khan, ex. finance minister of Pakistan, that what are the views of Opposition regarding this budget.



As far as whole scenario is observed, I personally think that despite of global recession and effect of terrorism in Pakistan along with energy crisis, the government may think that they had presented the "best budget" but of course one can not deny that many things are avoided which are basic needs of population of Pakistan, and obviously political parties are playing with these issues on there political battlefield as always.

Some News Links related to Budget 2010-2011

Budget Highlights in Daily Times
Budget Highlights in Daily Nation
Budget Highlights in Daily Dawn

Can Value Added Tax benefit Pakistan's Economy

There has been lots of buzz about value added tax (VAT) lately in Pakistan's economic environment. The officials are saying that Pakistan must impose VAT to gain help from IMF and sources are also commenting that widespread tax evasion will be observed as a protest from businesses and a public that has been ill-prepared for the change as both of the entities aren't given enough awareness about the subject.

So with lots of questions about VAT, that whether it could really benefit our economy and will prove a good solution to our long term fiscal problems, I had conducted program based on the subject, inviting renowned economists, Dr. Shahid A. Zia and Dr. Qais Aslam. So below are the videos discussing the subjects. Waiting for your comments.

Significance of Value Added Tax in Pakistan's Economy



Affect of VAT on Pakistan's economy



Benefits of VAT

Shortage of Petrol?

Today in morning the recording of one of my program (Aye Public Aye) was scheduled, but me and my host Rizwan Ali both were vague that what topic should we cover today. As soon, we went by near fuel station for gas refilling of the car, we saw that a hustle bustle was going on at the side of petrol filling area of the station.


We suddenly recalled our minds that Government has announced an increase in fuel prices from 1st of May 2010, and due to that petrol pumps have created an illusion of shortage of the fuel just in order to store the petrol till the high prices are announced, and most of petrol pumps were closed and their officials were saying that they are short of fuel.

According to the news , due to 8% increase in oil prices in global market, Pakistani government has announced Rs.2.40 in petrol and Rs.5.0 in diesel which will be applicable from 1st of May 2010.

This is not the first time that people had to face such tension, every time the Government announces a rise in fuel prices, the petrol stations creates a temporary shortage. Here what people said about the shortage of petrol in Lahore today:

Government should create such check and balances in order to avoid such depressive situations which people had to face in search of fuel. Most of the people consuming petrol are the ones who own motorcycles and are from lower middle class and are related to job sector, now the thing is that our country is already facing much economic disaster in the shape of mismanaged policies, and if such situation persists by these private companies just to benefit thier pockets how come the wheel of economy will run smoothly .

Another important aspect of this news is that, according to Daily News, Pakistan Industrial and Traders Association Front (PIAF) has opposed this proposed increase in petroleum prices and said that it will hit hard the industrial sector which is currently facing heavy crisis and again due to such governmental policies they are forced to cut down their expenses (and one form of it, is downsizing of employees). Now observing all these aspects, I am thinking that can we afford such kind of black mailing by the petroleum companies which are saying "Fuel out of stock".

Aid influenced Pakistani Economy

Last few years have been proved very disappointing for Pakistani economy. Our stock market felt drastically from 18,000 points to approx 6000+- points, the rate of dollar increased from Rs. 60's to Rs. 80's and due to that, rate of inflation, unemployment rate and high costs in productions have been observed by the industries.

Government had always tried to rely mostly on foreign aid when it comes to deal with such crisis, but the question is that whether an economy can really become stable or can come out of crisis with the help of only foreign aids and not building investment friendly policies.

Another important factor is that in 2009 according to statistics the Expenses bore by Pakistani treasure was $30.05 Billion Est. while its revenues were of $23.21 billion. These are the topics discusses in this shared episode of Maeshat Nama, which was aired on 24th of April 2010 on Apna News, and renowned Economist and Educationists Dr. Shahid Zia and Shafqat Saeed Paracha had participated in the program.

Aid affected Pakistani Economy Part 1



Aid affected Pakistani Economy Part 2



Aid affected Pakistani Economy Part 3

Islamic Banking System in Pakistan

On 20th April 2010, I invited renowned economists Dr. Qair Aslam and Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed in my program "Maeshat Nama", we wanted to discuss that even at the time of recession, one banking model i.e., Islamic Banking System, flourished and the now most of the non-muslim countries are even following this model. Below is the three part program hosted by Syed Azhar Bukhari.

Islamic Banking in Pakistan Part 1




Islamic Banking in Pakistan Part 2



Islamic Banking in Pakistan Part 3